Market Analysis

Brent crude has moved back above $100 after hopes for a quick easing in the Iran conflict faded, pushing traders to reprice supply disruption, shipping risk, and inflation pressure back into the market.

The S&P 500 rebounded sharply into quarter-end as investors reacted to signs of a possible off-ramp in the Iran conflict, but the bigger macro pressure has not disappeared. Elevated oil risk, sticky inflation concerns, and a still-cautious Federal Reserve continue to limit the case for a clean equity recovery.

AUD/USD remains under pressure near multi-month lows as safe-haven demand keeps the U.S. dollar firm, while the RBA’s 4.10% cash rate and a rebound in China’s March PMI provide only limited support for the Australian dollar.

GBP/USD is facing renewed pressure as safe-haven demand supports the U.S. dollar, while higher energy prices complicate the Bank of England’s policy path and weaken the near-term UK growth backdrop.

The Nasdaq has slipped into correction territory as Middle East tensions push oil higher, lift inflation worries, and pressure rate-sensitive technology stocks, even as some strategists still see support from earnings and improved valuations.

WTI crude has eased back toward the mid-$93 area after Washington signalled a 10-day pause in attacks on Iranian energy plants, but the market is still carrying a heavy geopolitical premium because a large volume of supply remains disrupted and traders continue to price serious upside tail risk into oil options.

Gold is attempting a rebound after a heavy March pullback, but rising inflation risks, firmer rate expectations, and lingering U.S. dollar strength are still limiting the scope for a stronger recovery in XAU/USD.

USD/JPY remains under upward pressure as safe-haven demand supports the U.S. dollar, while rising oil prices and policy uncertainty keep the yen vulnerable despite the Bank of Japan’s tightening bias.

EUR/USD stays trapped near the 1.15 area as safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar, sticky inflation risks, and a cautious Fed-ECB backdrop continue to limit upside. This short-term outlook focuses on momentum, resistance, and the macro drivers shaping the pair.