Market Analysis

EUR/GBP is trying to stabilise after sterling hit a 10-month high against the euro, as weak UK retail data and fading BoE hike expectations reduce pound momentum while ECB officials keep the door open to further tightening.

GBP/USD remains under pressure as the U.S. dollar holds near a 13-month high on Fed rate-hike expectations. Sterling still has support from BoE caution and improving UK political clarity, but the dollar’s rate advantage is limiting any rebound.

USD/JPY remains elevated as Fed rate-hike expectations, a stronger U.S. dollar, and global risk-off flows keep the yen under pressure. However, Japan’s intervention risk and BOJ discussions about faster rate hikes make the upside increasingly fragile.

AUD/USD remains under pressure as the RBA keeps rates high but Australia’s economy cools, while rising Fed hike expectations, elevated Treasury yields, and a firm U.S. dollar limit the Aussie’s rebound.

USD/CAD remains supported after the Canadian dollar hit a 14-month low, pressured by weak core retail sales and softer oil prices. However, renewed Strait of Hormuz risks have lifted crude prices again, limiting further CAD weakness.

EUR/USD remains under pressure after the Fed kept rates steady but signalled a possible hike later this year. The ECB’s recent rate increase still supports the euro, but stronger dollar demand and higher U.S. rate expectations are limiting the pair’s upside.

GBP/JPY remains elevated as the Bank of England is expected to keep rates at 3.75%, while the Bank of Japan has raised rates to a 31-year high. However, weak UK growth, yen intervention risk, and uncertain policy guidance make further upside less straightforward.

USD/CHF remains supported by expectations that the SNB will keep rates at 0% while the Fed stays cautious on inflation, but a softer U.S. dollar and the franc’s safe-haven role are limiting the pair’s recovery.

EUR/JPY remains elevated after the ECB raised rates to fight energy-driven inflation, but the pair’s upside is becoming more fragile as the Bank of Japan is expected to lift rates to a 31-year high and signal further normalisation.