Market Analysis

USD/CHF is stabilising near the 0.78 area because the Swiss franc is still supported by safe-haven demand, but the Swiss National Bank has become more openly concerned about excessive franc strength and has raised its willingness to intervene in FX markets.

The Russell 2000 has recovered from its late-March correction as lower oil prices improved risk appetite and revived hopes that financing pressure on smaller companies may ease. But inflation is still elevated, the Fed remains cautious, and that continues to limit the case for a smooth small-cap breakout.

Copper is staying supported as fresh supply-side pressure returns to the market, including expected output cuts at Chinese smelters and disruption risks in key producing regions. But weaker Chinese import demand and lingering growth uncertainty are still stopping the rally from becoming a clean breakout.

EUR/GBP is staying supported because the latest energy shock is reinforcing expectations that the ECB may need to stay tighter for longer, while the Bank of England looks more constrained by weaker UK growth and the domestic cost hit from higher fuel prices.

The Dow’s powerful rebound after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire now faces a new test. Failed weekend talks and a renewed Hormuz blockade threat have pushed oil back above $100, reviving inflation fears and putting fresh pressure on cyclical parts of the market.

Silver is staying relatively supported because lower rate expectations and a still-tight physical market are helping to offset part of the pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar and lingering ceasefire uncertainty in the Middle East.

NZD/USD has found support after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates at 2.25% and warned it could raise the OCR decisively if inflation pressures broaden. Even so, a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire and a still-firm dollar are limiting the kiwi’s upside.

Natural gas and LNG markets have eased after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire reopened the Strait of Hormuz, but the relief still looks incomplete. Shipping caution, damaged infrastructure, and earlier supply losses continue to limit the case for a full normalization in global gas pricing.

USD/CAD is staying elevated because stronger oil prices are no longer enough to offset safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar. A cautious Bank of Canada, weak Canadian services activity, and lingering geopolitical risk are keeping upside pressure on the pair.