Market Analysis

USD/JPY remains near elevated levels even after softer U.S. jobs data reduced Fed hike expectations. The yen is still pressured by Japan’s policy uncertainty and weak-yen inflation concerns, while intervention risk limits aggressive dollar-yen buying.

USD/CAD may ease after weak U.S. jobs data reduces near-term Fed hike expectations, but lower oil prices, USMCA uncertainty, and weaker Bank of Canada rate-hike pricing are limiting the Canadian dollar’s recovery.

AUD/USD is recovering as weak U.S. jobs data pushes the dollar lower and reduces near-term Fed hike expectations. However, Australia’s slowing economy and cautious RBA stance mean the Aussie’s rebound still needs confirmation.

GBP/JPY remains elevated as the Bank of England’s high-rate stance supports sterling, but weak UK momentum and Japan’s rising intervention risk around the yen are making further upside less straightforward.

EUR/USD remains under pressure as higher U.S. Treasury yields and Fed hike expectations support the dollar ahead of key U.S. jobs data. Eurozone manufacturing resilience gives the euro some support, but softer inflation readings are reducing urgency for further ECB tightening.

USD/CHF remains supported as the dollar heads for its strongest monthly gain in nearly a year on Fed hike expectations, while Switzerland’s low inflation and the SNB’s 0% policy-rate outlook limit the franc’s rate-support appeal.

NZD/USD remains under pressure as New Zealand’s weak growth outlook and high unemployment risk limit the kiwi’s rate-support story, while the U.S. dollar stays firm on Fed hike expectations, Gulf tensions, and upcoming U.S. jobs data.

EUR/GBP is trying to stabilise after sterling hit a 10-month high against the euro, as weak UK retail data and fading BoE hike expectations reduce pound momentum while ECB officials keep the door open to further tightening.

GBP/USD remains under pressure as the U.S. dollar holds near a 13-month high on Fed rate-hike expectations. Sterling still has support from BoE caution and improving UK political clarity, but the dollar’s rate advantage is limiting any rebound.